The loooooooong primary season is finally over. Today Obama is guaranteed to reach the number of Delegates and Superdelegates needed in order to receive his party's nomination. He will be the first African-American nominee for President of the United States from any "major" party. So what's in store for us in the up-comming months as Obama and McCain battle it out?
First off, we should be hearing lots of claims about who will be the VP candidate for both parties. There are so many rumors about the Obama-Clinton dream ticket, but I can't see it happening. Hillary is going to have to do a lot of work to backpedal after all the negative comments she had about Obama in order to help him win the Presidency, and this might make her a liability. I can see the phrase "His own candidate for VP said he was ..." being uttered over and over, with small room for rebuttal. This would be an easy target for McCain's campaign. While many Clinton supporters have said they wouldn't vote for Obama, I doubt most will follow through when they're presented the option in November. Would she jump on the chance? Probably. Will she be offered it? I doubt it. The Obama campaign would probably benefit more from having a less known VP candidate, like Bill Richardson, or a less vocal one like John Edwards, than they would with Hillary because they wouldn't have to cope with the baggage of such a hard fought primary.
In the national election Obama is going to have an advantage over McCain, albeit a small one. With the current state of the economy, and no signs of improvement, I would side more with the candidate of "change" than one of "experience". McCain is trying hard to prove that "experience" doesn't equal more of the same policies, but for most voters I think that they're going to want as big of a change from George W. Bush as possible, and McCain doesn't offer that. McCain is going to continue to hammer away at Obama's lack of experience, and accuse him of bad judgment in international affairs. While McCain has a valid point about giving people like Amedinajhad a global stage being a bad idea, most people are saying they prefer the idea of trying diplomacy before we get into another war. So while McCain keeps saying "he's wrong" people keep saying "I agree with him", and there's no way this is helping Sen. McCain.
While I still haven't decided how I'm going to vote, I predict that Obama will be the next President of the United States. I think the election is stacked against the Republicans and McCain, there's too many people angry at the Republicans because of the perceived failings of Bush. I don't buy the rhetoric that McCain will be a third term, I think his voting record in the Senate, where he often votes against the party, proves that, but I think it will be a very strong argument in the minds of many Americans that have felt like the government has let them down in the past 4 years. At the end of the day my decision will be made on the basis of what I believe will lead to more liberty in my lifetime, be it voting for Obama, McCain, or maybe even Bob Barr. I will be looking more in depth into the two candidates in the weeks to come as I form my decision, so stay tuned.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
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8 comments:
i disagree that people will be looking for 'change' and not 'experience.' when the economy is doing well, then people are more willing to take chances and vote for 'change,' and vice-versa. lets say - economy is doing super-shitty, and i have a job with someone i know that could atleast pay me, a mega-company... v.s. a start-up. i'd go with 'safety.'
Ricky, do you have any predictions as to who will have the majority in the house and senate; or is it too hard to tell? I don't really know if this is a reasonable question given which seats are up for re-election in the senate, etc. maybe its pretty obvious what will happen or maybe not.
Actually, from what I understand Hana, it's the complete opposite. The pattern is pretty easy to see starting with FDR. Every time the economy is doing poorly, the american people vote for who ever isn't in power. It's how Carter and Bush Sr. both lost the presidency after their first term.
If the economy is doing well, then there's no need for change. As the old saying goes, if it's not broke, don't fix it.
As for senate predictions, I have no clue. I don't really keep up with elections outside the national one, but I'll look into it and see what I can find out. I would love to see a republican house/senate with Obama in the Whitehouse so that the idea of Check and Balances might apply once again.
politics confuses me. X{ it doesnt seem very logical to have inexperienced people in office during a recession. (yes, i do know the economy is not literally in recession...yet, and i do know that either way, obama will have experienced people around him.) but more social programs and more expenditures should not be the answer right now! i came here, to fucking make a buck, and the democrats are going to make this country more socialist. ill go home if i need cheap healthcare. i need this country to stay capitalist. lolcats.
Republicans in congress and Obama in office is pretty much exactly what I have been hoping for. Keeping fingers crossed.
That's might the opposite of the most likely. If anything according to polls and the recent run-off elections it going to be a huge democratic gains in congress according to both republicans and democrats. And to answer Hana question, the reason for change elections is due to fact that you want to have someone that is going to install a new system, people don't really bother to find out what that system means. In this case we have had 8 years of one system and our economy sucks so well change it to whatever the other guy is offering and hope that fixes it.
To take a chapter from the book of Cerney. (although it may not be original work)
I will vote for whichever canidate does the very least.
Less is probably more. US policy (domestic or foreign) hasn't exactly been stellar in a while.
So yeah, a X whitehouse with a Y senate would be awesome. Especially if they hate each other and never let anything happen for 4 years.
Ricky, since finding your blog my productivity level has fallen at work. You are indirectly responsible for some GDP loss.
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